Xishuangbanna, SE China, like most of SE Asia regions, has been largely transformed from biodiverse natural forests and mixed-use farms into monoculture rubber plantations in just twenty years. This conversion has expanded into forests previously protected by the community and onto marginal sites at high-elevation. Market-based ecosystem payments, especially carbon financing, water and recreation market, are potential tools to prevent further forest loss. Here, we compare rubber net present value (NPV), market value of carbon sequestration, Non-timber forest products (NTFPs), other land-use and biodiversity, labor force needs for Xishuangbanna given seven land-use scenarios based on 2010 land-use map: Non-Rubber Scenario, agroforestry 2010, Conservation Oriented Scenario (CES), agroforestry CES, Business-As-Usual Scenario (BAU), agroforestry BAU, Economic Oriented Scenario (EOS), agroforestry EOS using our previously published spatial map of rubber profitability. The spatially explicit models on carbon, NTFPs, land use market price in our study will help us to answer: 1) which is more cost-efficient between rubber monoculture and rubber agroforestry? 2) Which has better ecological functions/values? 3) Is there balance between economic cost-efficiency and ecological functions/values? Which can perform better between rubber monoculture and rubber agroforestry? 3) Which is more implementable based on existing policy-supports?

The results from our study are not only important for China, but also to the SE Asian Countries where rubber monoculture is expanding rapidly. Our methodology provides a direct and spatially explicit approach to identify where market-based payment for ecosystem services and implementable policy-supports could be successfully introduced for sustainable land-use management. Our results are novel and provide a significant insight into the development of sustainable rubber agroforestry through the application of appropriate policy.